This post is not necessarily a trend but more likely a possibility based on an observation about a particular trend that I've been watching over a long period of time. I think at this time everybody is aware that Amazon has become the online leader for purchasing goods and services for many people. In fact, many of the brick-and-mortar stores that have gone to online services are having a difficult time keeping up with the vast number of materials and services that Amazon provides. However there remains one big problem in providing those materials and services to the owners who have ordered from Amazon.
We have all seen the many UPS trucks, FedEx trucks, DSL trucks, and others delivering packages to either us or a neighbor. These delivery trucks are certainly ubiquitous and have become a part of the scenery as we go through our day. Certainly even thieves, know the comings and goings of all these trucks and try to intercept and steal these packages. But my question in this post entry is whether or not is likely that we will ever see an Amazon truck replacing UPS or any of the other delivery services? And although it seems like a very heavy lift to me, it is possible that Amazon's widening tentacles are in a position to make this move over some period of time. The reason I referred to this as a heavy lift is simply that UPS and many others not only have trucks but they have airplanes, cars, trains, and other conveyances to move materials across the United States and indeed the world. So for Amazon to start from scratch would be difficult but certainly not impossible. A big part of their problem right now is the cost of shipping using these other carriers and even with prime they are running very close to the margins on profit.
 
In the past few years it has been stated that Amazon would like to use a multi-copter in order to deliver materials to customers.(Please don't call these drones). But even this method of delivery seems like a long shot at the very best and not readily possible at the worst. Quite incidentally, Amazon received a US patent to use small parachutes to drop products from multi-copters. US 9,663,234.
 
One thing to consider is that UPS has had since the 1920s the ability to deliver items by truck. They have had a remarkable amount of time to build up the infrastructure to supply the nation with a reasonably rapid delivery system. And the key to this, is in the distribution centers. But here is the caveat that has me interested: Amazon has been building distribution centers around the country and they are stocked with all of their products! That is a powerful incentive to deliver by the use of Amazon trucks. They already use Amazon flex that delivers time-sensitive products by private drivers.
This post may suggest that I am ahead of the curve or terribly wrong so if you see an Amazon truck please let me know. I really don't want to be terribly wrong!
 
 

The meaning of the word ambulance has its origins as far back as the 1400's when carts were used to move both sick and injured from battle fields. Today, we have several classes of ambulances to select from for our medical needs. The first is the traditional vehicle with the somewhat mobile hospital that is staffed with paramedics and EMT's (emergency medical technicians). These are rapid response vehicles with the appropriate lights and sirens. These ambulances are sometimes used to transport patients with non-threatening illnesses but are primarily rescue vehicles. Second is the Care Ambulance which is simply designed to transport patients on a non-emergency basis. Third is the air ambulance that is used in critical care transport in either difficult to access areas and serious life-threatening situations.
But, more and more people are calling a Uber vehicle as opposed to the traditional ambulance. Why? The cost of a regular professionally staffed ambulance is expensive. We can't expect to receive a fully staffed ambulance for $25  dollars . Second is the response time particularly in bigger cities. The average response time in New York is 9 to 15 minutes. An Uber car can be there in 3 to 4 minutes. The key question is what is the medical emergency? If it is serious and requires a life saving procedure the Uber is the last call to make. Do you want an Uber driver doing CPR in the back seat of a car? Of course not!
There are however times when an Uber car is appropriate. Consider the fact that you may have a well-controlled injury or just not feeling well. You would call a friend but none are available and Uber may be a good alternative. But, you better be sure that it is a situation that will not escalate or you may be in trouble.
As a founding member of an ambulance service and having served as a volunteer for ten years, I know how difficult is to train, educate, and maintain certification as an EMT. If I have a serious concern that last call I would make is to an Uber vehicle.
As a small piece of trivia it is often asked why the word ambulance is printed as an inversion on the front of an ambulance so that it can be seen is the rear-view mirror. It has absolutely no relevance and if you can't see the flashing lights and hear the sirens, you certainly can't read 'Ambulance" in your mirror!

The use of lithium ion batteries has become ubiquitous as the portable power of phones, tablets, hover boards, and even multi-rotors, (incorrectly called  drones). But, the convenience and increased run time due to better energy density has caused severe problems in the form of fires that have injured and even been responsible for death. Additionally, a piece of very expensive equipment such as a phone or tablet is destroyed.
There are several reasons for the catastrophic failure of these batteries, but the two most prevalent causes are a failure of the charging control circuit malfunctioning, and metal flakes shorting out between the anode (positive terminal), and the cathode, (negative terminal). Between the two terminals is the electrolyte which allows the ions to travel as the medium for power release that has been stored from the charging cycle. The electrolyte used in lithium batteries is flammable and the lithium is highly flammable in the presence of water. The space between the anode and cathode is very small making short circuits more likely. But, there are processes underway to make the electrolyte self extinguishing, and reducing the potential for damage.
Researchers at Stanford University have successfully encapsulated a flame retardant in a polymer called Polyvinylidene Fluoride,  sometimes called the difluoride. The encapsulated flame retardant is triphenyl phosphate, a well known fire retardant. The polymer is close to what we know as Saran Wrap tm (Polyvinylidene chloride). The concept is extremely simple; as the polymer melts at 160 Celsius it releases the triphenyl phosphate when over-heating occurs extinguishing the fire. Incidentally, the technology  extents to lithium polymer as well. The polymer is just the soft outer container with the lithium ion technology. The cover photo is a scanning electron microscope image showing the encapsulated TPP. Credit: Liu et al. Sci. Adv. 2017;3:e1601978 (Science Advances).
So, the trend is clear; safer batteries are possible and the technology that fostered the lithium ion battery also can be used to solve the problem of runaway fires...
 
 

We have had news stories that have been wrong or dangerous and they came along much earlier than our current social media outlets. Whether they were simply hoaxes, urban myths, or rumor, we, as human animals seem to participate in either sensational stories or those with spurious origins. And, unfortunately many are simply lies and gross exaggerations or generated by those with an agenda to spread. The one that always remains in my memory is about the woman who put her cat in the microwave oven to dry him off. And when the time was up, the cat was dry but quite dead! And although plausible, it is not a really easy story to believe.
The verbal rumor was probably around when collective man originated. And, the written falsehoods possibly became part of the written word shortly after Gutenberg invented moveable type. But now we are in an entirely different time and social media allows not only immediate dissemination of information, but is also global in its reach. And, it is just as likely as not to be either completely wrong or dangerous.
The most recent shooting at the pizzeria in the Washington Post was based on a Twitter story alleging that Hillary Clinton was involved in a sex-slave plot and could have been deadly. An excerpt from the Post:
"Family and friends said they are struggling to understand how Welch apparently became so fixated on a fake news story that he drove from North Carolina with a Colt long rifle, a .38-caliber revolver and a shotgun, determined to take action. The viral Internet tale, which emerged shortly before the presidential election, falsely linked Hillary Clinton, her campaign chairman and the owner of Comet [The Pizza Shop] to the alleged sex-slave conspiracy".
Clearly, anyone has the right to propagate whatever opinion and fact that they have in a democratic society. And, the First Amendment prohibits me from disallowing this freedom. But, many of those who post damaging and harmful content have to be aware that with that right comes responsibility.
Not only the person who writes some story designed to either disrupt or cause danger needs to be held to some reasonable account of their actions, but those who spread the fake news are also responsible. And lest you think that these tweets or Face book "news" stories and re-tweets come from some disillusioned conspiracy theorist sitting in the safety of an anonymous existence consider the fact that Trumps nominee for National Security Advisor, General Michael Flynn, re-tweeted the false story about Hillary Clinton. From Fortune:
"On Twitter in particular, Flynn has not been shy about holding forth about Muslims, terrorism, and Hillary Clinton. And in several cases he has shared fake news stories about those subjects".
So, the trends are clear enough. Fake news is everywhere and it travels at the speed of the internet. The only answer that I can offer is that it is imperative that we research any story written anywhere before believing that it is real. Since it is difficult to find the sources of these stories it is apparently alright to yell fire in a crowded theater even when there is no fire. Unfortunately, if we don't verify and re-tweet a bogus story, somebody may get trampled to death...
 
 

It seems as if every Christmas holiday season there is a new gadget or toy that is a “must have” item. But frequently they are sold out before you know that you really need one. But kids know about the trends and they will want one at any price. In the past it has been Cabbage Patch Kids, Furby, Tickle me Elmo, or Pet Rocks! Of course, they are fads (For A Day) and the toy will soon be relegated to the past.
This year it appears to be Hatchimals being sold by Spin Master and they are already in short supply or not available at all. Spin Master has had success with other toys that are essentially electronic in nature like Furby was. Their website has an in stock link and most retailers are showing “out of stock”! Of course you can find them on Ebay at many times the retail price as somehow these retailers saw the trend first.
So what is a Hatchimal? Basically it is an electronic animal much like a Furby with some differences. It arrives for the child, (I am assuming it is for a child), as an egg. The egg has glowing eyes and the heartbeat (speaker) can be heard through the egg. It ultimately hatches and then the fun ensues! One of two types of creature emerges and can learn and speak. It has an accelerometer that tells when the child has picked the hatchling up. The toy has stages and is born, become a toddler, and learns and plays games.
This toy is actually fairly sophisticated and contains some interesting features. It has a retail price of about $60.00 but a quick look on Ebay has them for between $150.00 and several hundred dollars! Talk about disposable income!
There is a complete video on YouTube here. I will wait for two years and pick one up at a thrift shop for $5.00 to hack it for parts…

The most recent rumor spurred by social media seems to be combining implausibility and fear. And, this is not to suggest that rumors are new to the social media network, but that they are travelling faster and there is very little tracking as to the truth or rumor of an event.
Clowns carrying a knife, gun, or some other dangerous weapon are appearing in so many places that police can’t keep up with the reports. And so far there have been no actual clowns with evil intentions; yet! But what happens when someone gets the idea to capitalize on the hype and really carry out a tragic act. Will the warning be considered just part of the rumor mill and be disregarded? Or will it escalate like spoofing and swatting?
It requires a fair amount of resources to follow up on a complaint, particularly at a college or university. The schools own intranet can only send a threat message once it has been verified and that takes valuable time. And that happens as we approach Halloween?
We are living in a time where fear is being used as a weapon against us by unseen enemies. It is a time when we should be attempting to tamp down rumors and innuendo. But we are failing to be responsible and use reason to increase our sense of safety. Instead, we are doing this to ourselves! It is very similar to the hate messages that are always more “entertaining” than those comments that are positive. But when did we become fixated on hate as entertainment?
If there is a trend that I worry most about it is the fact that we are losing civility and becoming more course in our collective dialog. And, we are doing it at warp speed. When I watch our political discourse I often wonder if the people running for office are generating the negative rhetoric or simply reflecting what they observe. It would be great if everyone took some time to think about what they read on Twitter or Facebook and did their own fact checking instead of instantly starting to respond…
 
 
 

It is somewhat traditional to wait for a trend to develop before predicting the future but the handwriting is on the wall for Pokemon Go. Some factors are self-evident like the biggest part of the population, the kids, will be soon be in school, the daylight is getting shorter, and winter is coming as well limiting outside treks. But there are at least three parts of the equation that are built in to its self destruction.
First, the game is much too simplistic and repetitive and requires the same strategies to play the game. The challenge is just not real enough for sustained commitment to the simulated altered reality.
Second, the game depends on a solid GPS signal and internet connection as the player travels about. Then it needs the cell phone camera in the augmented reality chase. But, the battery has limitations and many phones just die in the process. To combat this problem, after-market battery packs are being sold to extend the shelf life of the power source.
Third, there is the data usage that is being used to chase the elusive critters. That is fine if you are in a free WiFi location but most players go far afield like cemeteries, abandoned buildings, other peoples property, and other unsavory locations. So, data usage can begin exceed your limit and cost a lot to play a basically mundane game.
I have not even mentioned the distraction of people walking into traffic, congesting meeting locations, pedophiles, and criminals. Maybe these are small components but never the less need to be considered. Having said all of this, there will be players who will become addicted to another waste of time and drain on individual creativity. Perhaps it is better to be walking than sitting in front of a TV or social media screen but in either event, Pokemon Go will be gone. FAD! For A  Day!
 
 

The accuracy of political polling has been trending downward over the last ten years and is now beginning to lose its credibility. Unfortunately it seems that both pundits and the general public seem to feel that polls are reflective of the probable outcome of an event. In fact, most of all of the current political news begins by citing the latest poll, and we now know that there is a strong likelihood that the poll is wrong!
A good example is in the presidential contest of 2012. Pollsters were predicting a virtual tie between Obama and Romney and well known and respected Gallup predicted a Romney win. But Obama won by over 4 % with 5 million more votes. And the problem with poll accuracy is worldwide. Pollsters got the referendum on Scottish independence wrong and it was clearly rejected. But the same problems have been seen in Britain and in Israel. So what has gone wrong with the polling system and does it reflect the same concerns in other polls? Please be aware that I am discounting the fact that 93 % of dentists believe that toothpaste A cleans 98 % better than toothpaste B as marketing BS.
The prevailing wisdom about opinion poll failure seems to come down to the convergence of two events. The first is the growth of cellphones. Ten years ago 6 % of the population relied on cellphones and by 2014 the number was close to 60 % using primarily non-landline communications. In the past, opinion researchers would autodial landlines and if they picked up they went to a live interviewer. But Federal law prohibits autodialing cellphones so researchers have to manually dial landlines and this shifts the outcome. How? The landlines are mostly answered by those over 50 and this leaves out the young and mobile millennials. It also discounts the less affluent and minority population that uses mobile phones only. The other compounding factor with cellphones is that when people move, they take their number with them so following the area code becomes much more problematic. The likelihood of a poll capturing a given part of a state becomes risky at best. So, pollsters use a system of compensation called “weighting” to adjust the results. But that is another can of worms that I don’t want to open in this post!
The second factor involves the continued use and abuse of telemarketers. They have poisoned the well for people who used to answer a landline phone. Even the residents who have added their number to the “Do Not Call” list have discovered that they are not immune to being annoyed by unwanted calls for aluminum siding and lower credit rates. With so many options for telephone marketers to hide their locations, like spoofing, they are difficult to identify and stop. So, people with landlines screen their calls or let them go to answering machines or voicemail.
As far as I am concerned the polls are a waste of time and we will not know who the next president will be until after the election. So, the news programs can continue to present polls in colorful splendor, and I will continue ignoring them. Oh wait! Another two dentists say that toothpaste A really is better. I should start buying that brand…

 
 
 

Distracted drivers are a problem whether they are on the phone, texting, using drugs or alcohol, or just not paying attention. The Center for Disease Control and prevention (CDC) has collected statistics that indicate that there are 9 deaths and over 1,100 injuries in the US every day. And, it is apparent that texting causes many of the problems, as it is continually in the news. So, what is the answer to this problem? Why it’s the textalyzer of course! The textalyzer is analogous to the Breathalyzer ™ which is the roadside device used to test blood alcohol levels of suspected drunk drivers. 
The textalyzer is a portable piece of electronic equipment that is designed to look at a cell phone log to see if texting was being performed preceding or during an accident. It was developed by the Israeli company Cellebrite, the same firm that is believed to have assisted the FBI with the cell phone encryption problem with Apple.
The first legislation has been proposed in New York and is designed to have drivers have their cell phones tested at an accident scene. (New York was also the first state to implement drunk driving laws and field sobriety tests in 1910). But, it seems that we are running into that pesky Fourth Amendment right to privacy:
            “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized”.
So, to get around this hurdle the proposed law excludes looking at any data on the phone other than the log activity and time related to the accident. However, Cellebrite already has phone scraping technology so it is still a question as to how the data will be ignored. While trusting people would expect probable cause to look at data and a warrant obtained, I remain skeptical.
And then we get to the really sticky part of the proposed legislation which is implied consent. It is defined as a driver will allow the police access to the phone at the scene of an accident and, if denying that request, will lose the use of their driver’s license. This is the same way that the DUI laws work. So, even if you are parked and are hit by another vehicle, the authorities will have the option of checking your phone.
I have posted entries before about the erosion of privacy and have concluded that we surrender our rights as soon as we get on the internet. (Example: Not reading the long and laborious  “I Agree” documentation when adding software. And the textalyzer is just another step in the trend to have more intrusion. Will this technology stop texting while driving? Sure it will! Just as the laws have stopped drunk driving…
 
 
 

We have all had the opportunity to read some of the comments on any number of websites and seen the stupid, vitriolic, racist, and language deficient feedback to a post entry. Of course some of the responses are on target and belong in the discussion. And, as always, some are simply trolls and bring nothing to the comments but idiocy. YouTube seems to have the largest number of this category and they would rather troll than simply not watch the video.
And, maybe you have seen the “Mean Tweets” on Jimmy Kimmel where celebrities read real tweets that they have received. These tweets are really derogatory but the celebrities make fun of them, but some of these tweets are really hurtful.   And, almost of these comments and tweets are anonymous! And, that really is the problem.
There has been an ongoing trend to have some control of comments on internet sites; particularly, the news organizations that have a real stake in keeping subscribers engaged and involved in important dialog. So, to avoid the anonymous screen name being used, the sites require registration with real names, email addresses, or other traceable data to keep the poster a bit more accountable for their comments. But, the displayed name is still a screen name. Presumably the commenter doesn’t want to be recognized for some reason. But if privacy is the reason, forget it! There are sites that can track screen names via social media sites and connect the dots to identify the poster. And, if there is clear harassment or threats the courts can subpoena the ISP (Internet Service Provider) for the name. But there is clear evidence that we have the right to be anonymous according to the Supreme Court ruling in McIntyre v. Ohio Elections Commission (Here) that the First Amendment protects our right to be anonymous:
Protections for anonymous speech are vital to democratic discourse. Allowing dissenters to shield their identities frees them to express critical, minority views . . . Anonymity is a shield from the tyranny of the majority. . . . It thus exemplifies the purpose behind the Bill of Rights and of the First Amendment in particular: to protect unpopular individuals from retaliation . . . at the hand of an intolerant society.
So, the trend as I see it is to continue the anonymous screen name for most sites because readers are drawn to the vitriol. It seems to be like rubbernecking at the scene of an accident. We don’t like the idea of an accident but we are drawn to look. Maybe it is simply human nature to read controversial content. But, I will continue to use my real name as I feel strongly that it lends credibility to my comments and I am not going to throw acid at anyone. Here on this site we have very respectful readers and for that I am thankful…