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Tribes, Polls, and Politics...

8/18/2019

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Every four years we go into a presidential election. The year 2020 will continue a very long term trend that hopefully will last a long time. And this run-up to the event has some of the same features as usual. Political speeches, polls, and the talk of division which is now called tribal. The various factions will be intractable in their allegiance to one party or another. But this cycle shows something new in that there is extreme polarization and irrational zeal for one side or the other.
But consider for a moment that early Neanderthals formed tribes for mutual defense and survival. And they were divided as well with some wanting to hunt for natural vegetation, some for meat, and probably some for women as mates. And there was division. Some sought leadership, some followers, and there was some violent confrontation and fights for position. Sound familiar?
And despite limited language skills there was some polling to judge who was showing leadership potential. Again, sound familiar? But we have taken poll information to a point where it is absolutely useless this early in the election cycle. The polls ask "who do you like and why"? Many people don't even know who is running as name recognition is still a problem. So for the next 6 months consider polling as too small a sample size, based on incomplete information, and not predicting any useful data.
It seems like for every election we are faced with the decision as to who we like the least based on two candidates that we find difficult to really feel comfortable with. So, politics which is built on money that is corrupt and run by machinery that both parties use is frustrating at best. Then there is the worst Supreme Court decision on Citizens United. It is now easy for corporations to bankroll candidate that will support their business. And then there are the stump speeches that all candidates make that sound good until we realize that they can do none of what they promise without Congress. And of course with the Congress which is in a perpetual state of paralysis almost nothing will be done. The trend? More of the same until more people get serious about voting and seeing something and saying something!
 

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