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Facebook and flames...

5/22/2012

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It has been interesting to watch the social media sites as they began to grow and "catch fire" around the world. But, there is good evidence that the fire may mean that these incredible growth rates are over, and that  they may either go up in smoke, or down in flames. Consider the slow demise of MySpace, and the constant grumblings of the current members of Facebook. Whether it is about privacy, advertising, or the problems one encounters trying to leave Facebook, the drums are sounding. And the problems are just beginning as Facebook has gone public, and making money becomes the primary goal. The market is saturated with FB, MySpace, Twitter, Google+, and other smaller social media locations. But, lets look at FB, and make some observations about the long term viability of this particular site.
First, it was inevitable that FB had to go public. There is an arcane law in the SEC's (Security and Exchange Commission) from 1964 that forces any company with more than 500 "shareholders of record" to open its books for examination. FB has had more than 500 for some time but had to, at some point, go public and share its financial details. But the fact that they went public, and the loss of GM as an advertiser are not the reasons for a less than bright future. But, with shareholders who will push for profit over everything, the pressure will increase on FB. Many sites, including the major newspapers,have struggled to find a model to monetize their content. But, there is an even more disturbing problem that leads me to believe that the heat is on.
If we go back to the mid-1990's until 2001, we may recall the dot com bubble that caused the failure of many online sites. The problem? They were all over valued and the investment bubble burst when the value of these companies was strictly on paper. And, that is exactly where FB is in terms of value. The widely quoted worth is over 100 billion dollars! Really? Then we would have to ask why FB and others have always looked for money to operate? There are still a lot of unanswered questions and I would not pretend to know where it will all shake out. But, the ill wind is blowing.
I realize that there are faithful fans of FB who live for friends and virtual friends, and those who consider social media sites a waste of precious time. But like virtual friends, there is virtual financial worth, and the time will come when the real value will be determined.

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Violence and Agression, Nature vs. Nurture

5/4/2012

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Unfortunately, we see violence and aggression almost everyday, either in real time, or on the TV news. Some of the aggression seems almost an act of simple stupidity as opposed to a well thought out activity. For example, road rage is a good example of spontaneous aggression brought about either by frustration, or brain chemistry gone wrong. As most drivers know, it is a frequent fact that we see other drivers that do some unusual things while driving. They may fail to signal lane changes, cut in front of others, or just change lanes without  considering the other cars on the road. And, in complete disclosure, I have been guilty of making poor choices, particularly at merge locations, where I inadvertently offended another driver.  But, if it happens to me, I don't automatically go for a gun in the glove compartment or try to run the other driver into a ditch. We make decisions based on several basic pieces of information. Did the other driver intentionally mean us harm? Or, did the circumstance happen by a simple mistake. I believe that most of us will try to distance ourselves from the offender if it appears to have been intentional. If it is a mistake, we just move on after a few quiet expletives. But others will try to destroy the offender. And as Shakespeare noted "therein lies the rub"!
The question is why and how the decision is made to avenge the audacity of the other stupid driver. Almost one year ago on this page I posted the subject "Evolution" asking if we are as highly evolved as we are led to believe that we are. My general thesis in that post was that we are not highly evolved and still operate with the basic tools of the early cave dwellers. We are, as societies have changed, controlled by social convention, but it seems to require only a small incident to get us to revert to a very basic instinctual reaction. It is only a blink of the eye in cosmic time that we have been "civilized" with rules, laws, and mores. So. I continue to come down on the side of nature with regard to aggression and violence.
But, there are divergent views and the question will probably not be answered in our lifetimes. I did some hunting around for a balanced look at the issue and found a 2002 article on Serendip.com written by Sarah McCawley at Bryn Mawr College here. Some of the footnote references have not been updated but it is a good start in understanding both side of the issue. I am always open to a change in thinking, and  welcome comments. But right now my serotonin level is up so I will stay off of the roads today...

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